Bear flag
Continuation shape6 completed examples in the record
What the shape is
A steep decline followed by a shallow drift against it, the mirror of a bull flag. Found six times, so no rate is published.
What followed it
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 6 | too few examples | -0.39% | -0.39% … -0.39% |
| 10 bars | 6 | too few examples | -0.59% | -0.59% … -0.59% |
| 20 bars | 6 | too few examples | -1.93% | -1.93% … -1.93% |
| 60 bars | 6 | too few examples | -5.96% | -5.96% … -5.96% |
10 instruments, 1d / 4h, 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-25 — 182,341 bars and 661 completed formations.
engine v1.0.0 · Record generated 2026-07-25
- These figures describe past occurrences of the same shape. They are not a projection of this chart.
- 661 formations is not a large sample, and the instruments are correlated USDT pairs, so the effective sample is smaller still.
- Below 30 examples no rate is printed at all.
- Changes are close-to-close and exclude fees, funding and slippage.
- Medians and quartiles pooled across instruments are sample-weighted approximations, not exact pooled quantiles.
- A formation is timed from the bar its break became observable, and every change is measured strictly after that bar.
- Pooled across every instrument and both backtest timeframes.
The same shape, split by interval
Interval 1d
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 2 | too few examples | +2.00% | +2.00% … +2.00% |
| 10 bars | 2 | too few examples | -0.34% | -0.34% … -0.34% |
| 20 bars | 2 | too few examples | -7.55% | -7.55% … -7.55% |
| 60 bars | 2 | too few examples | -17.40% | -17.40% … -17.40% |
Interval 4h
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 4 | too few examples | -1.58% | -1.58% … -1.58% |
| 10 bars | 4 | too few examples | -0.72% | -0.72% … -0.72% |
| 20 bars | 4 | too few examples | +0.88% | +0.88% … +0.88% |
| 60 bars | 4 | too few examples | -0.24% | -0.24% … -0.24% |
The backtest covered the daily and 4-hour intervals only. Only one shape reaches the publication floor on the daily, against eight on the 4-hour — so every pooled rate above is in practice a 4-hour statistic. The console scans five intervals; the three not listed here have no historical record at all.
How it is detected
Formations are matched against swing pivots rather than raw bars, so a single spiky candle cannot create one. A pivot is committed only once price reverses by more than 2.5 times ATR(14), floored at 0.8% of price. A detection is reported only at confidence 0.72 or above — the library default, unmodified.