Bull flag
Continuation shape8 completed examples in the record
What the shape is
A steep advance followed by a shallow drift against it. Found eight times here — the striking median change on that row describes a handful of episodes and is not an estimate of anything.
What followed it
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 8 | too few examples | +9.32% | +7.14% … +11.51% |
| 10 bars | 8 | too few examples | +7.68% | +5.15% … +10.21% |
| 20 bars | 8 | too few examples | +9.21% | +7.12% … +11.29% |
| 60 bars | 8 | too few examples | +18.13% | +13.40% … +22.86% |
10 instruments, 1d / 4h, 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-25 — 182,341 bars and 661 completed formations.
engine v1.0.0 · Record generated 2026-07-25
- These figures describe past occurrences of the same shape. They are not a projection of this chart.
- 661 formations is not a large sample, and the instruments are correlated USDT pairs, so the effective sample is smaller still.
- Below 30 examples no rate is printed at all.
- Changes are close-to-close and exclude fees, funding and slippage.
- Medians and quartiles pooled across instruments are sample-weighted approximations, not exact pooled quantiles.
- A formation is timed from the bar its break became observable, and every change is measured strictly after that bar.
- Pooled across every instrument and both backtest timeframes.
The same shape, split by interval
Interval 1d
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 2 | too few examples | +6.98% | +6.98% … +6.98% |
| 10 bars | 2 | too few examples | +2.20% | +2.20% … +2.20% |
| 20 bars | 2 | too few examples | +0.31% | +0.31% … +0.31% |
| 60 bars | 2 | too few examples | -6.51% | -6.51% … -6.51% |
Interval 4h
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 6 | too few examples | +10.11% | +7.20% … +13.02% |
| 10 bars | 6 | too few examples | +9.51% | +6.14% … +12.88% |
| 20 bars | 6 | too few examples | +12.17% | +9.39% … +14.95% |
| 60 bars | 6 | too few examples | +26.34% | +20.04% … +32.65% |
The backtest covered the daily and 4-hour intervals only. Only one shape reaches the publication floor on the daily, against eight on the 4-hour — so every pooled rate above is in practice a 4-hour statistic. The console scans five intervals; the three not listed here have no historical record at all.
How it is detected
Formations are matched against swing pivots rather than raw bars, so a single spiky candle cannot create one. A pivot is committed only once price reverses by more than 2.5 times ATR(14), floored at 0.8% of price. A detection is reported only at confidence 0.72 or above — the library default, unmodified.