Bull pennant
Continuation shape42 completed examples in the record
What the shape is
A steep advance followed by a small converging consolidation. Its rate here moves around considerably between horizons, which is what a sample of this size looks like.
What followed it
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 42 | 50.0% at or below a coin flip | +3.10% | +1.70% … +7.90% |
| 10 bars | 42 | 40.5% at or below a coin flip | +2.31% | +0.41% … +10.84% |
| 20 bars | 42 | 59.5% | +4.42% | +1.44% … +13.02% |
| 60 bars | 42 | 66.7% | +7.65% | +1.47% … +15.37% |
10 instruments, 1d / 4h, 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-25 — 182,341 bars and 661 completed formations.
engine v1.0.0 · Record generated 2026-07-25
- These figures describe past occurrences of the same shape. They are not a projection of this chart.
- 661 formations is not a large sample, and the instruments are correlated USDT pairs, so the effective sample is smaller still.
- Below 30 examples no rate is printed at all.
- Changes are close-to-close and exclude fees, funding and slippage.
- Medians and quartiles pooled across instruments are sample-weighted approximations, not exact pooled quantiles.
- A formation is timed from the bar its break became observable, and every change is measured strictly after that bar.
- Pooled across every instrument and both backtest timeframes.
The same shape, split by interval
Interval 1d
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 6 | too few examples | +8.28% | +8.21% … +8.35% |
| 10 bars | 6 | too few examples | +0.62% | -0.13% … +1.37% |
| 20 bars | 6 | too few examples | +5.40% | +4.66% … +6.14% |
| 60 bars | 6 | too few examples | -0.93% | -1.22% … -0.63% |
Interval 4h
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 36 | 55.6% | +2.24% | +0.61% … +7.83% |
| 10 bars | 36 | 44.4% at or below a coin flip | +2.60% | +0.51% … +12.42% |
| 20 bars | 36 | 66.7% | +4.26% | +0.91% … +14.17% |
| 60 bars | 36 | 75.0% | +9.08% | +1.91% … +18.04% |
The backtest covered the daily and 4-hour intervals only. Only one shape reaches the publication floor on the daily, against eight on the 4-hour — so every pooled rate above is in practice a 4-hour statistic. The console scans five intervals; the three not listed here have no historical record at all.
How it is detected
Formations are matched against swing pivots rather than raw bars, so a single spiky candle cannot create one. A pivot is committed only once price reverses by more than 2.5 times ATR(14), floored at 0.8% of price. A detection is reported only at confidence 0.72 or above — the library default, unmodified.