Bear pennant
Continuation shape32 completed examples in the record
What the shape is
A steep decline followed by a small converging consolidation, the mirror of a bull pennant. It clears the sample floor but sits close to a coin flip at every horizon.
What followed it
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 32 | 53.1% | +1.46% | -0.48% … +3.91% |
| 10 bars | 32 | 56.3% | +1.63% | -0.87% … +4.58% |
| 20 bars | 32 | 53.1% | +4.82% | +1.71% … +8.26% |
| 60 bars | 31 | 51.6% | +7.80% | +2.88% … +15.48% |
10 instruments, 1d / 4h, 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-25 — 182,341 bars and 661 completed formations.
engine v1.0.0 · Record generated 2026-07-25
- These figures describe past occurrences of the same shape. They are not a projection of this chart.
- 661 formations is not a large sample, and the instruments are correlated USDT pairs, so the effective sample is smaller still.
- Below 30 examples no rate is printed at all.
- Changes are close-to-close and exclude fees, funding and slippage.
- Medians and quartiles pooled across instruments are sample-weighted approximations, not exact pooled quantiles.
- A formation is timed from the bar its break became observable, and every change is measured strictly after that bar.
- Pooled across every instrument and both backtest timeframes.
The same shape, split by interval
Interval 1d
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 8 | too few examples | +7.41% | +6.65% … +10.56% |
| 10 bars | 8 | too few examples | +11.29% | +9.31% … +15.76% |
| 20 bars | 8 | too few examples | +23.05% | +20.30% … +29.14% |
| 60 bars | 7 | too few examples | +45.55% | +37.33% … +53.78% |
Interval 4h
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 24 | too few examples | -0.53% | -2.85% … +1.70% |
| 10 bars | 24 | too few examples | -1.58% | -4.26% … +0.85% |
| 20 bars | 24 | too few examples | -1.25% | -4.48% … +1.30% |
| 60 bars | 24 | too few examples | -3.22% | -7.17% … +4.32% |
The backtest covered the daily and 4-hour intervals only. Only one shape reaches the publication floor on the daily, against eight on the 4-hour — so every pooled rate above is in practice a 4-hour statistic. The console scans five intervals; the three not listed here have no historical record at all.
How it is detected
Formations are matched against swing pivots rather than raw bars, so a single spiky candle cannot create one. A pivot is committed only once price reverses by more than 2.5 times ATR(14), floored at 0.8% of price. A detection is reported only at confidence 0.72 or above — the library default, unmodified.