Cup with handle
Reversal shape5 completed examples in the record
What the shape is
A rounded base followed by a shallow drift against the recovery. Found five times in this dataset, so no rate is published for it.
What followed it
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 5 | too few examples | +1.34% | +0.66% … +2.01% |
| 10 bars | 5 | too few examples | +5.19% | +4.93% … +5.44% |
| 20 bars | 5 | too few examples | +7.83% | +6.92% … +8.73% |
| 60 bars | 5 | too few examples | +13.95% | +12.74% … +15.15% |
10 instruments, 1d / 4h, 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-25 — 182,341 bars and 661 completed formations.
engine v1.0.0 · Record generated 2026-07-25
- These figures describe past occurrences of the same shape. They are not a projection of this chart.
- 661 formations is not a large sample, and the instruments are correlated USDT pairs, so the effective sample is smaller still.
- Below 30 examples no rate is printed at all.
- Changes are close-to-close and exclude fees, funding and slippage.
- Medians and quartiles pooled across instruments are sample-weighted approximations, not exact pooled quantiles.
- A formation is timed from the bar its break became observable, and every change is measured strictly after that bar.
- Pooled across every instrument and both backtest timeframes.
The same shape, split by interval
Interval 1d
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 1 | too few examples | +0.77% | +0.77% … +0.77% |
| 10 bars | 1 | too few examples | +19.38% | +19.38% … +19.38% |
| 20 bars | 1 | too few examples | +25.44% | +25.44% … +25.44% |
| 60 bars | 1 | too few examples | +52.97% | +52.97% … +52.97% |
Interval 4h
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 4 | too few examples | +1.48% | +0.63% … +2.32% |
| 10 bars | 4 | too few examples | +1.64% | +1.32% … +1.96% |
| 20 bars | 4 | too few examples | +3.42% | +2.29% … +4.55% |
| 60 bars | 4 | too few examples | +4.19% | +2.69% … +5.69% |
The backtest covered the daily and 4-hour intervals only. Only one shape reaches the publication floor on the daily, against eight on the 4-hour — so every pooled rate above is in practice a 4-hour statistic. The console scans five intervals; the three not listed here have no historical record at all.
How it is detected
Formations are matched against swing pivots rather than raw bars, so a single spiky candle cannot create one. A pivot is committed only once price reverses by more than 2.5 times ATR(14), floored at 0.8% of price. A detection is reported only at confidence 0.72 or above — the library default, unmodified.