Double bottom
Reversal shape50 completed examples in the record
What the shape is
Two troughs at roughly the same level with a peak between them; the mirror of a double top, read as a turn higher. It is one of only two shapes here that stayed above a coin flip at every horizon measured.
What followed it
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 49 | 61.2% | +1.75% | -0.22% … +5.88% |
| 10 bars | 49 | 63.3% | +3.57% | -0.07% … +8.73% |
| 20 bars | 48 | 56.3% | +8.19% | +0.04% … +14.30% |
| 60 bars | 47 | 57.5% | +19.47% | +5.07% … +30.70% |
10 instruments, 1d / 4h, 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-25 — 182,341 bars and 661 completed formations.
engine v1.0.0 · Record generated 2026-07-25
- These figures describe past occurrences of the same shape. They are not a projection of this chart.
- 661 formations is not a large sample, and the instruments are correlated USDT pairs, so the effective sample is smaller still.
- Below 30 examples no rate is printed at all.
- Changes are close-to-close and exclude fees, funding and slippage.
- Medians and quartiles pooled across instruments are sample-weighted approximations, not exact pooled quantiles.
- A formation is timed from the bar its break became observable, and every change is measured strictly after that bar.
- Pooled across every instrument and both backtest timeframes.
The same shape, split by interval
Interval 1d
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 14 | too few examples | +1.31% | -1.40% … +6.33% |
| 10 bars | 14 | too few examples | +5.85% | +0.17% … +13.32% |
| 20 bars | 13 | too few examples | +20.60% | +4.93% … +27.75% |
| 60 bars | 12 | too few examples | +48.93% | +16.45% … +73.98% |
Interval 4h
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 35 | 62.9% | +1.92% | +0.25% … +5.70% |
| 10 bars | 35 | 65.7% | +2.66% | -0.16% … +6.89% |
| 20 bars | 35 | 54.3% | +3.57% | -1.77% … +9.31% |
| 60 bars | 35 | 57.1% | +9.38% | +1.16% … +15.86% |
The backtest covered the daily and 4-hour intervals only. Only one shape reaches the publication floor on the daily, against eight on the 4-hour — so every pooled rate above is in practice a 4-hour statistic. The console scans five intervals; the three not listed here have no historical record at all.
How it is detected
Formations are matched against swing pivots rather than raw bars, so a single spiky candle cannot create one. A pivot is committed only once price reverses by more than 2.5 times ATR(14), floored at 0.8% of price. A detection is reported only at confidence 0.72 or above — the library default, unmodified.