Rounding bottom
Reversal shape3 completed examples in the record
What the shape is
A slow, curved base rather than a sharp turn. A parabola fits a V-shaped reversal well enough that curvature alone cannot separate the two, so both models are fitted and the shape is only called rounded when the parabola wins.
What followed it
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 3 | too few examples | +16.07% | +13.56% … +17.38% |
| 10 bars | 3 | too few examples | +13.16% | +4.55% … +14.87% |
| 20 bars | 3 | too few examples | +10.65% | +3.73% … +12.80% |
| 60 bars | 3 | too few examples | +17.71% | +9.53% … +19.23% |
10 instruments, 1d / 4h, 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-25 — 182,341 bars and 661 completed formations.
engine v1.0.0 · Record generated 2026-07-25
- These figures describe past occurrences of the same shape. They are not a projection of this chart.
- 661 formations is not a large sample, and the instruments are correlated USDT pairs, so the effective sample is smaller still.
- Below 30 examples no rate is printed at all.
- Changes are close-to-close and exclude fees, funding and slippage.
- Medians and quartiles pooled across instruments are sample-weighted approximations, not exact pooled quantiles.
- A formation is timed from the bar its break became observable, and every change is measured strictly after that bar.
- Pooled across every instrument and both backtest timeframes.
The same shape, split by interval
Interval 4h
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 3 | too few examples | +16.07% | +13.56% … +17.38% |
| 10 bars | 3 | too few examples | +13.16% | +4.55% … +14.87% |
| 20 bars | 3 | too few examples | +10.65% | +3.73% … +12.80% |
| 60 bars | 3 | too few examples | +17.71% | +9.53% … +19.23% |
The backtest covered the daily and 4-hour intervals only. Only one shape reaches the publication floor on the daily, against eight on the 4-hour — so every pooled rate above is in practice a 4-hour statistic. The console scans five intervals; the three not listed here have no historical record at all.
How it is detected
Formations are matched against swing pivots rather than raw bars, so a single spiky candle cannot create one. A pivot is committed only once price reverses by more than 2.5 times ATR(14), floored at 0.8% of price. A detection is reported only at confidence 0.72 or above — the library default, unmodified.