Falling wedge
Reversal shape66 completed examples in the record
What the shape is
Two converging downward-sloping boundaries, the mirror of a rising wedge. Its rate decays with time here — 57.6% at five bars, 47.0% at twenty — which suggests a short-lived effect rather than a durable one.
What followed it
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 66 | 57.6% | +0.85% | -0.68% … +2.76% |
| 10 bars | 66 | 53.0% | +1.58% | -0.06% … +4.15% |
| 20 bars | 66 | 47.0% at or below a coin flip | +1.72% | -1.39% … +7.25% |
| 60 bars | 66 | 45.5% at or below a coin flip | -1.87% | -7.71% … +5.86% |
10 instruments, 1d / 4h, 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-25 — 182,341 bars and 661 completed formations.
engine v1.0.0 · Record generated 2026-07-25
- These figures describe past occurrences of the same shape. They are not a projection of this chart.
- 661 formations is not a large sample, and the instruments are correlated USDT pairs, so the effective sample is smaller still.
- Below 30 examples no rate is printed at all.
- Changes are close-to-close and exclude fees, funding and slippage.
- Medians and quartiles pooled across instruments are sample-weighted approximations, not exact pooled quantiles.
- A formation is timed from the bar its break became observable, and every change is measured strictly after that bar.
- Pooled across every instrument and both backtest timeframes.
The same shape, split by interval
Interval 1d
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 16 | too few examples | +3.14% | +0.59% … +5.68% |
| 10 bars | 16 | too few examples | +6.29% | +3.34% … +8.86% |
| 20 bars | 16 | too few examples | +9.75% | +4.75% … +16.49% |
| 60 bars | 16 | too few examples | -7.34% | -14.41% … +11.94% |
Interval 4h
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 50 | 54.0% | +0.11% | -1.09% … +1.83% |
| 10 bars | 50 | 50.0% at or below a coin flip | +0.07% | -1.15% … +2.64% |
| 20 bars | 50 | 44.0% at or below a coin flip | -0.85% | -3.36% … +4.30% |
| 60 bars | 50 | 48.0% at or below a coin flip | -0.12% | -5.56% … +3.91% |
The backtest covered the daily and 4-hour intervals only. Only one shape reaches the publication floor on the daily, against eight on the 4-hour — so every pooled rate above is in practice a 4-hour statistic. The console scans five intervals; the three not listed here have no historical record at all.
How it is detected
Formations are matched against swing pivots rather than raw bars, so a single spiky candle cannot create one. A pivot is committed only once price reverses by more than 2.5 times ATR(14), floored at 0.8% of price. A detection is reported only at confidence 0.72 or above — the library default, unmodified.