What the shape is

Two peaks at roughly the same level with a trough between them. The classical reading is that a rise has failed twice in the same place and turns lower. In this dataset it resolved that way 29.1% of the time at ten bars over 55 examples — the opposite of the textbook expectation, most plausibly because the sample period mostly rose.

What followed it

Horizon	Examples	Textbook direction	Median change	Middle half
5 bars	55	43.6% at or below a coin flip	+0.02%	-2.16% … +2.73%
10 bars	55	29.1% at or below a coin flip	+3.19%	+0.03% … +4.66%
20 bars	55	40.0% at or below a coin flip	+1.49%	-2.42% … +6.46%
60 bars	55	38.2% at or below a coin flip	+2.99%	-1.48% … +11.58%

10 instruments, 1d / 4h, 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-25 — 182,341 bars and 661 completed formations.

engine v1.0.0 · Record generated 2026-07-25

These figures describe past occurrences of the same shape. They are not a projection of this chart.
661 formations is not a large sample, and the instruments are correlated USDT pairs, so the effective sample is smaller still.
Below 30 examples no rate is printed at all.
Changes are close-to-close and exclude fees, funding and slippage.
Medians and quartiles pooled across instruments are sample-weighted approximations, not exact pooled quantiles.
A formation is timed from the bar its break became observable, and every change is measured strictly after that bar.
Pooled across every instrument and both backtest timeframes.

The same shape, split by interval

Interval 1d

Horizon	Examples	Textbook direction	Median change	Middle half
5 bars	6	too few examples	-1.04%	-2.85% … +0.77%
10 bars	6	too few examples	+3.62%	+2.89% … +4.35%
20 bars	6	too few examples	+2.88%	+1.72% … +4.04%
60 bars	6	too few examples	+15.01%	+8.92% … +21.11%

Interval 4h

Horizon	Examples	Textbook direction	Median change	Middle half
5 bars	49	44.9% at or below a coin flip	+0.15%	-2.07% … +2.97%
10 bars	49	28.6% at or below a coin flip	+3.13%	-0.33% … +4.69%
20 bars	49	40.8% at or below a coin flip	+1.31%	-2.92% … +6.76%
60 bars	49	38.8% at or below a coin flip	+1.51%	-2.75% … +10.41%

The backtest covered the daily and 4-hour intervals only. Only one shape reaches the publication floor on the daily, against eight on the 4-hour — so every pooled rate above is in practice a 4-hour statistic. The console scans five intervals; the three not listed here have no historical record at all.

How it is detected

Formations are matched against swing pivots rather than raw bars, so a single spiky candle cannot create one. A pivot is committed only once price reverses by more than 2.5 times ATR(14), floored at 0.8% of price. A detection is reported only at confidence 0.72 or above — the library default, unmodified.

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