Rising wedge
Reversal shape34 completed examples in the record
What the shape is
Two converging upward-sloping boundaries, read as an advance losing width and turning lower. One of only two shapes that stayed above a coin flip at every horizon, with a median change that is negative throughout.
What followed it
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 34 | 61.8% | -2.17% | -2.90% … -0.30% |
| 10 bars | 34 | 64.7% | -2.79% | -4.37% … -0.72% |
| 20 bars | 34 | 61.8% | -1.32% | -3.40% … +0.79% |
| 60 bars | 34 | 52.9% | -1.45% | -4.83% … +3.17% |
10 instruments, 1d / 4h, 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-25 — 182,341 bars and 661 completed formations.
engine v1.0.0 · Record generated 2026-07-25
- These figures describe past occurrences of the same shape. They are not a projection of this chart.
- 661 formations is not a large sample, and the instruments are correlated USDT pairs, so the effective sample is smaller still.
- Below 30 examples no rate is printed at all.
- Changes are close-to-close and exclude fees, funding and slippage.
- Medians and quartiles pooled across instruments are sample-weighted approximations, not exact pooled quantiles.
- A formation is timed from the bar its break became observable, and every change is measured strictly after that bar.
- Pooled across every instrument and both backtest timeframes.
The same shape, split by interval
Interval 1d
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 4 | too few examples | -8.37% | -8.37% … -8.37% |
| 10 bars | 4 | too few examples | -11.17% | -11.17% … -11.17% |
| 20 bars | 4 | too few examples | +4.07% | +4.07% … +4.07% |
| 60 bars | 4 | too few examples | +3.98% | +3.98% … +3.98% |
Interval 4h
| Horizon | Examples | Textbook direction | Median change | Middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 bars | 30 | 56.7% | -1.34% | -2.17% … +0.78% |
| 10 bars | 30 | 63.3% | -1.67% | -3.46% … +0.68% |
| 20 bars | 30 | 66.7% | -2.03% | -4.39% … +0.35% |
| 60 bars | 30 | 53.3% | -2.17% | -6.01% … +3.06% |
The backtest covered the daily and 4-hour intervals only. Only one shape reaches the publication floor on the daily, against eight on the 4-hour — so every pooled rate above is in practice a 4-hour statistic. The console scans five intervals; the three not listed here have no historical record at all.
How it is detected
Formations are matched against swing pivots rather than raw bars, so a single spiky candle cannot create one. A pivot is committed only once price reverses by more than 2.5 times ATR(14), floored at 0.8% of price. A detection is reported only at confidence 0.72 or above — the library default, unmodified.